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Apparently, the move in the market can be partly attributed to a rumor that the Fed would raise the Discount Rate today (at 12:30 to be precise - is what I am reading).  The Fed has commented that they “do not not comment on Rumors” .  This is now leading to a selloff in the USDJPY and a rise in the EURUSD.

In what is becoming a bit confusing, the Greek PM is now saying that “he wants to make it on their own and not asking EU or IMF for support.  He also comments how the government has a “Titanic” task ahead of it.  The Titanic sunk didn’t it on it’s maiden voyage? I am thinking he is talking too much and just confusing the markets, which will simply not help.

The EURUSD now has broken through the 1.3609 support trendline and next targets the 1.3582 level (61.8% retracement) 

As per the prior post the USDJPY has moved through 100 hour moving average resistance and is now up testing the 90.72 level. This level has contained the topside this week.  The high last week came in at 91.07 and the high target remains at the 200 day MA at the 91.72 today.  A break of 90.72 is the first step.

The EURUSD found sellers at 1.3691 (reaching a high of 1.3694) and that was enough to get the price moving back to the downside. The price fell through the 200 bar MA, it fell through the trendline, it fell through 1.3654 and it was off to the races.  The Greece situation continues to weigh as until there is support from EU to a member, the market is going to feel uneasy. 

The price has moved to test the bottom trendline of the move down over the last few days.  This trendline comes in at 1.3607. This level should be watched.  A break looks toward the 1.3582 level which is the 61.8% of the move up from the March low to the March high.

Index comes in at 18.9 vs 18.0 expectation but New Orders are down to 9.3 from 22.7. Future index is stronger however.  USDJPY moves up then down.  Holds 100 hour MA resistance.

FACTORY INDEX AT 18.9 VS 17.6 last month
 PRICES-RECEIVED AT -0.4 VS 3.7 last month
 EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 8.4 VS 7.4 last month
 PRICES-PAID INDEX AT 38.6 VS 32.4 last month
 NEW ORDERS INDEX AT 9.3 VS 22.7 last month
 FUTURE INDEX AT 52.0 VS 35.8 last month

The EURUSD has moved back above the 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart at the 1.3674 level in range type trading. The 1.3691 level remains key upside resistance for the pair above.  The high for NY is 1.3686 so far.  A move above these level would confirm further upside momentum is likely with the 200 bar MA on the same chart at 1.3700 the next target.  On the downside a move below the 1.3654 level should solicit more selling.  pressure with a move  to 1.3627 the next target.

At 10 AM we have the Philadelphia Fed Index  with expectations of 18.0 vs 17.6 last month.

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The price moved below the 100 day MA level overnight but bounced back (level is 90.07 today). The price moved back down to test the level off the CPI and 8:30 data and his back back again.  The level will continue to be a key level for traders today.  Look for buyers against the level with stops on moves back below.

On the topside, a move above the 200 and 100 hour MA at the 90.35 and 90.43 level will help the bias further and would target key resistance at 90.72.

The USDCAD broke through trendline support yesterday on its way to support at 1.0074 area.  The price corrected back above the trendline and is not back down looking to test the level.  When there is a quick reversal back above a trendline, I like to keep the integrity in tact to see how the market reacts the next time.  For one, the break was not sustainable and two, since the line is downward sloping in this case at least, a retest is also near the low from yesterday.  As a result, there may be buyers against the line and against stops below the low set yesterday.

The line comes in at 1.0083 and this level will be watched closely today for the pair.  Dip buyers may look to use the level for  a low risk trade.   A break would not be welcomed, however as the fundamentals for the CAD$ remain positive. 

Upside resistance for the pair needs to extend above the 1.0110 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  This would give a more bullish bias for the pair.