Your Friend LLC

As further strength saw the pair breaking and closing above the 92.31 level, its Oct 27’09 high on Wednesday, threats are now seen towards its established falling channel top currently at 93.60. From the big picture perspective, the pair is trading within its broader falling channel and that channel top…

A positive end to the calendar year in the form of lower claims for unemployment insurance has left the U.S. government bond market nursing losses as evidence mounts that it won’t just be champagne flowing into the New Year. The improving economic tone looks certain to improve in the first…

The USDCAD is sitting in between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.  We define this condition at FXDD as being in between the “goal posts” .    When this condition exists the market is thought to be in a period of transition as it decides if the next move is higher or lower.  Watch the price action.  Traders can buy dips against the 100 hour with selling below. Alternatively, they can sell against the higher 200 hour MA with buying on moves above.  Look for momentum on the breaks. 

The current 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.0469.  The current 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.0531.

The USDJPY surged higher off the better Employment data this morning. Earlier the price held our support level at the 92.32 level where the 100 bar MA was also located.   The price is up testing the high from yesterday at the 92.76 level and this high provides a low risk trading opportunity for range trading traders.  Look for sellers with stops above.

A break targets the 93.12 level (50% of the move down from the April high to the low). Another longer term upside target coming more into focus is the 200 day MA (green line in the daily chart below) at the 93.67 level). 

Much better than expectations.  However, the holiday season can influence the numbers as offices close for the holiday and if the seasonal changes don’t account for it fully, it can be reversed going forward in the weeks ahead.

Nevertheless, it is what it is, and the dollar is finding a little bid off the number.  The EURUSD is down testing the 200 bar MA support at the 1.4378. Next support at 1.4362 which was the floor from earlier today. Look for sellers on rallies back toward the 100 bar MA (blue line below).  That level comes in at the 1.4400 area currently.

In observance of the New Year holiday, FXDD will close at 2:00 PM today and also be closed tomorrow. 

We wish all our valued customers a Happy, Healthy, Prosperous and Peaceful New Year.

The weekly Unemploymnet Claims are due out at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a small rise to 460K from 452K last week. The Continuing Claims are expected to show a slight rise to 5100K from 5076K last week.  Both measures have been trending down as the employment situation improves slowly but surely in the USA.

The GBPUSD was supported this morning by better Home Price data this morning.  The short squeeze is also continuing to boost the price as traders square up positions before the New Year. 

The price move higher is now testing the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high in November at the 1.6876 level and the low reached just yesterday at the 1.5832 level. The level comes in at the 1.6231 level.  Look for profit taking sellers at the level.  However, be careful of a  break above given the breadth of the rally that has seen level after level broken.

On the downside, support today comes in at the 1.6185 and 1.6158 today.

The EURUSD has been testing the 100 bar moving average since yesterday afternoon and in early NY trade, the pattern has continued.  The 100 bar moving average comes in at the 1.4400 level currently.  The price tested the MA on no fewer than six occasions. 

The trade for the day is if the price stays above the MA, bullish. If it falls below bearish, and look for momentum on the break with a test of the 200 bar moving average the next target (currently at the 1.4374 level) .  Use a 10 or so pip stop as the market should move lower, but if it does not, protect yourself with a stop.

Click here to view the embedded video.