Your Friend LLC

The last time the market was below the 1.4600 level was in early October.  At that time, the price was moving up from the October 2nd low of  1.4480.  On the way the price had interim highs at 1.4463 and a later low at the 1.4566 level. From the 1.4566 low the price continued its move higher – later using the 100 hour MA as support at the 1.4590 level (see chart) before surging to the highs.

The 1.4566 level is the next support level.  The upside resistance is now at 1.4611 and the 1.4638 level. Watch these levels to provide resistance.  A move above the 1.4611 may see some profit taking. However, to keep the bearish bias, the 1.4638 level should not be breached.

Like the EURUSD as the 1.4638 level, the USDCHF is testing the 100 day MA as well.  The current target level comes in at the 1.0356 level. The high for the day has reached 1.0362.  However, the price has moved back lower.   A close above this moving average level will be the first close above since April 27th 2009.

Also, like the EURUSD the 38.2% retracement of the summer fall has been tested today at the 1.0338 level.  This is a modest correction off of the summer high, not the high from March. If the dollar is making a more serious corrective move, the pairs correction off the March high comes in up at the 1.0699 level. 

First things first, however.  A break of the 100 day MA is needed and this should lead to further upside momentum for the pair.

The AUDUSD is between the 100 and 200 hour MA. These are the “Goal Posts” in our technical terminology at FXDD.  The price moved above the 200 hour MA earlier today which should have solicited buyers. However, the better than expected US data reversed that break (and upward bias).  When a break does not do what it is suppose to do, get out.  Now  the downside support against the 100 hour moving average has been tested at 0.9117. 

A break above or below the barriers should lead to a momentum move in the direction of the break. However, before that time, look for support buyers against the 100 hour MA and sellers against the 200 hour MA.  The 100 hour MA currently comes in at the 0.9117 level. Look for intraday buyers against the level with stops below.

The low from yesterday is basically the low for today. Yesterday the low reache 1.6214.  The low for today reached 1.6216.  Watch this level.  A break should solicit some selling in the pair.  Key support remains at 1.6158-66 (see prior post for charts and further discussion).