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EUR/JPY reversed from 138.47 and dropped sharply last week. Despite strong intra-week recovery, EUR/JPY’s fall resumed towards the end and closed after making a new weekly low. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 100% projection of 138.47 to 132.79 from 135.97 at 130.29 first. On the…

While the intra-week recovery in GBP/JPY was strong, it was limited well below 153.21 and reversed. GBP/JPY then dived to close the week near to the low and thus retain the bearish outlook. That is, whole rebound from 139.69 should have completed at 153.21 already, ahead of 61.8% retracement of…

The dollar and yen ended a volatile week on a strong note on Friday. Risk aversion rose on growing concerns over the financial company outlook and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Personal income and personal consumption were weak as expected and consumer conference declined, but manufacturing activity was stronger…

Click here to view the embedded video. 

Greg Michalowski runs through the majors, the commodity pairs, and the “risk pairs’ (AUDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY), in his weekly technical report. He analyzes each of the pair via the daily chart and the hourly chart and gives his bias from each perspective given the technicals. 

If you want to recieve the daily commentary’s produced by Greg and Shawn, email Greg at greg@fxdd.com.  Alternatively, simple go to http://forex.fxdd.com and all the videos can be found there. 

If you are interested in opening an account you can also email Greg and he will have a customer representative get back in touch with you. 

Thank you for your continued business and have a great weekend.

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To all FXDD Customers,

We are having some technical issues sending out our videos via the MT email system. Until that can be resolved, you can always find our videos by going to http://forex.fxdd.com . That will never change. 

Alternatively, you can email me at greg@fxdd.com and I will be happy to send you the reports via normal email after they are produced.  The choice is yours.

Thanks for your patience and your support,

Greg Michalowski.

The 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.6445 level.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.6416 level.  The price has been very volatile but if the price can stay below the 1.6445 level on this correction, the downside might reassert itself. Keep an eye on the 1.6445 level with a break of 1.6416 likely to pressure further.  The Target on the downside? 1.6362 = 100 day moving average. The target on the upside, would be 1.6468.

In the commentary posted this morning we outlined the key resistance against the 100 and 200 hour MA (CLICK here for the post).  The price did use these key level as resistance,and this led to a sharp fall in the currency pair. 

The price has now moved through the midpoint of the months high low range which comes in at the 90.16 level.  Stops are being triggered with little in the way of support until 89.55.  However, there may be some minor support at 89.89 which was the high price on October 14th.  Look for resistance at 90.16 with stops above.

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The London Friday Fixing (12 Noon New York time), was particularly brutal with the EURUSD falling sharply, the GBPUSD falling sharply only to bounce back higher after the event.

The EURUSD moved to a low of 1.4721 (target was 1.4702)  and has bounce back up to where it is back up to test the 1.4771 level (midpoint of the months range).  I would expect sellers up at this level, but the market is extremely illiquid at the moment.  Look for a market pause with additional resistance at 1.4790.

The GBPUSD had a more wild ride. The price broke below the flag trendline on the downside, rebounded then broke a 2nd time.  This move was the charm and the price moved to the 100 hour MA at the 1.6413 level and bounced back above the old trendline up to a high of 1.6522.  Your guess is as good as mine after that move.  My hunch is to the downside but with a stop above the 1.6526 level.

The NZDUSD is pressured today after rallying strongly yesterday on the back of the stronger US GDP. The pair has been trenling up for most of 2009 on the back of higher commodities and global recovery theme.  The geographic proximity to the growth areas of the world has also benefitted the pair. 

However, the price has been under pressure of late and the Reserve Bank of New Zealands reluctance to talk about raising rates like its neighbor Australia, has the currency on the defensive.  In short, the pair could have gone too far too fast and is due for a correction.

From a technical perspective, the price is below the trendline at the 0.7264 level.  Watch this level on the upside today.   If the price can stay below this level and close the week below, then the target from a longer term perspective could extend down to the 100 day MA at the 0.6834 level currently.

Now this longer term and requires that the price stay below this trendline to start (and then being able to reach interim targets along the way) but it is worth noting on a Friday. 

Shorter term, the price remains below the 100 hour MA at the 0.7362 level currently. This is bearish.

The price is also below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.7286 level currently (and moving down).  As a result, the daily, hourly and 5 minute chart are all giving a negative bias.

For a trade, as long as the price remains below 0.7264 and below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, the downside is preferred with the thought that the low from Thursday is the next target (0.7160).  A break below that level could increase the downward momentum.

Like all the trades we analyze, the moves are dependent on completing the technical steps along the way, and keeping the bias to the downside.  IF that bias changes, the trades are covered. SO monitor the key technical levels along the way.