Archive for September, 2009

 

Forex Economic Calendar

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

Date Time* Source Description Forecast Previous
9/9/2009 01:30 AUS Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) 0.5% -1.4%
9/9/2009 05:00 JPN Leading Index CI 81.9 79.9
9/9/2009 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a -72.3%
9/9/2009 06:00 GE CPI (YoY) 0.0% 0.0%
9/9/2009 08:30 UK Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) -GBP2000 -GBP2176
9/9/2009 09:30 UK BRC August Shop Price Index n/a n/a
9/9/2009 12:15 CA Housing Starts 135.0K 134.2K
9/9/2009 18:00 US Fed’s Beige Book n/a n/a
9/9/2009 21:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
9/9/2009 22:45 NZ Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) -3.2% -3.0%
9/9/2009 23:01 UK NIESR GDP Estimate n/a -0.4%
9/9/2009 23:50 JPN Machine Orders YoY% -31.0% -29.7%
9/10/2009 01:00 AUS Consumer Inflation Expectation n/a 3.5%
9/10/2009 01:30 AUS Employment Change -15.0K 32.2K
9/10/2009 11:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 0.50% 0.50%
9/10/2009 12:30 CA Int’l Merchandise Trade -0.5B -0.1B
9/10/2009 12:30 US Trade Balance -$27.5B -$27.0B
9/10/2009 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 560K 570K
9/10/2009 12:30 US Continuing Claims 6200K 6234K
9/10/2009 13:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate 0.25% 0.25%
9/10/2009 22:45 NZ Food Prices (MoM) n/a 0.6%
9/10/2009 23:50 JPN GDP (QoQ) 0.9% 0.9%
9/11/2009 05:00 JPN Consumer Confidence 40.0 39.7
9/11/2009 06:00 GE Wholesale Price Index (YoY) n/a -10.6%
9/11/2009 08:00 EU ECB Publishes Sep. Monthly Report (Text) n/a n/a
9/11/2009 08:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) -0.5% -1.3%
9/11/2009 12:30 CA New Housing Price Index MoM -0.1% -0.2%
9/11/2009 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -15.9% -19.3%
9/11/2009 14:00 US U. of Michigan Confidence 66.3 65.7
9/11/2009 18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement -$159.1B -$111.9B
9/13/2009 22:45 NZ Retail Sales (MoM) n/a 0.1%
9/14/2009 04:00 JPN Tokyo Condos Newly for Sale n/a -9.1%
9/14/2009 04:30 JPN Industrial Production YOY% n/a -22.9%
9/14/2009 09:00 EU Eurozone Employment (YoY) n/a -1.2%
9/14/2009 09:45 EU European Commission Releases Economic Forecasts n/a n/a
9/14/2009 12:30 CA Capacity Utilization Rate 65.0% 69.3%
9/14/2009 22:45 NZ Manufacturing Activity n/a -0.9%
9/15/2009 01:30 AUS Reserve Bank’s Board September Minutes n/a n/a
9/15/2009 03:00 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings n/a 76.6%
9/15/2009 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a n/a
9/15/2009 06:00 EU EU 25 New Car Registrations n/a 3.0%
9/15/2009 08:30 UK CPI (YoY) n/a 1.8%
9/15/2009 09:00 EU ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) n/a 54.9
9/15/2009 12:30 CA New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM 5.0% -0.6%
9/15/2009 12:30 US Producer Price Index (YoY) -5.4 -6.8%
9/15/2009 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism n/a 50.3
9/15/2009 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
9/16/2009 01:00 AUS Westpac Leading Index (MoM) n/a 0.7%
9/16/2009 04:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting n/a n/a
9/16/2009 08:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) n/a 7.8%
9/16/2009 09:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI – Core (YoY) n/a 1.3%
9/16/2009 11:00 US Bloomberg Global Confidence n/a 58.12
9/16/2009 12:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) -1.7% -2.1%
9/16/2009 13:00 US Total Net TIC Flows n/a -$31.2B
9/16/2009 13:15 US Capacity Utilization 69.1% 68.5%
9/16/2009 17:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index 19 18
9/16/2009 23:30 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) n/a 0.1%
9/17/2009 01:30 AUS RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn n/a 705M
9/17/2009 04:00 JPN BoJ Target Rate n/a 0.10%
9/17/2009 08:30 UK Retail Sales (YoY) n/a 3.3%
9/17/2009 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance n/a 4.6B
9/17/2009 10:00 UK U.K. CBI September Industrial Trends Total Orders n/a n/a
9/17/2009 11:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY n/a -0.9%
9/17/2009 12:30 CA Leading Indicators MoM n/a 0.4%
9/17/2009 12:30 US Housing Starts 590K 581K
9/17/2009 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
9/17/2009 12:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
9/17/2009 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed. 6.0 4.2
9/18/2009 05:00 JPN Leading Index CI n/a n/a
9/18/2009 06:00 GE Producer Prices (YoY) n/a -7.8%
9/18/2009 08:00 EU ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA n/a -5.3B
9/18/2009 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) n/a 14.5%
9/18/2009 12:30 CA Wholesale Sales MoM n/a 0.6%

* Times listed are GMT

Which Currencies Will Do Best Against the U.S. Dollar?

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

For readers of the Daily Currency Focus, it should be no surprise that the dollar has continued to weaken. On Wednesday, we said that the actions by the Federal Reserve have cemented the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. Given how currency traders have responded to previous Quantitative Easing threats and announcements, the EUR/USD could realistically hit 1.40 (see charts). Although equities have given back its gains and bond yields have rallied, the moves in the currency and commodity markets indicate that the Fed’s actions will have a lasting impact on the financial markets. As we look forward to more dollar weakness, it is worthwhile to consider how a weaker dollar impacts the global economy.

9-9 Economic Calendar

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

region_forex_00025

AUD and NZD Move Lower on Weaker Numbers

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

The AUD and its cousin the NZD, moved to new yearly highs late in Asian trading yesterday and then again broke through those levels and made new highs today ahead of the Asian equity market open and maintained their bid on multi-year highs for the Australian consumer confidence reading. However, the move was short-lived as both currencies sold off on worse than expected retail sales and home loan figures from Australia. The instant reaction and modest follow through on these back dated July releases continues to give the feeling of a thin market moving toward stops rather than on fundamentals. On the charts below, we see the AUD/USD pair move toward yesterday’s top and the NZD/USD doing the same. The markets continue to perplex, but perhaps the first full day off fall trading is not indicative of things to come.

audusd2

 

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BOJ’s Suda on the News Wires

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

The BOJ’s Miyako Suda stated that Japan’s economy has stop worsening, but he notes that they need to keep an easy money policy for now. He also made the following comments:

  • The role of unconventional measures is falling.
  • An expansionary policy risks boosting the economy more than expected.
  • Downside risks in the near future are falling.
  • The Japanese economy is steadily heading towards a pick-up.
  • There is still a high level of uncertainty about the economy.
  • The Capital expenditures environment remains severe.
  • There is a high risk of prices falling more than expected in the near future.
  • CPI falls within expectations thus far.
  • The doubt over fiscal discipline may push up long- term rates.
  • The global financial market still remains unstable.
  • Corporate funding conditions are clearly improving.
  • Must watch longer-term inflation expectations.

Australian Retail Sales and Home Loans

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

Australia’s Retail Sales and Home Loans for the month of July were worse than expected and the market immediately sold off after being bid up on a better Aussie consumer confidence reading. The details of the release are as follows:

  • Retail Sales (MoM) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: -1.0%   Prior: -1.4%
  • Home Loans – Survey: -1.5%   Actual: -2.0%   Prior: 1.1%
  • Investment Lending – Actual: -4.0%   Prior: -1.8%

Westpac Consumer Confidence

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence for the month of September was 5.2% versus its prior release of 3.7%. This was the highest reading since July 07. The Aussie recieved a light bid on this release, already trading on yearly highs.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Investment Protection, Opportunities

The Euro versus Dollar pair traded calmly after reaching 1.4535 with the formation of a bearish technical pattern with a pivot support at 1.4475, as seen in the secondary image. This pattern, alongside the negative signs appearing on stochastic, may pressure the pair to correct slightly to the downside towards…

EUR/JPY Trades at the 21Day MAVG

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Opportunities

The EUR/JPY pair has traded off the 21 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the last move ahead of the Nikkei open, however was unable to penetrate as the Nikkei and US equity futures trade lower. A break could lead to stronger technical support at these levels.

eurjpy2

Asia Session Recap

Sep 08, 2009 in Grow Financially, Investment Protection, Opportunities

Riskier assets were initially back in vogue in Asia today, with the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars both pushing to new yearly highs at the expense of the US Dollar. AUD/USD began the day soaring to a 0.8660 high, but poor Retail Sales and Home Loans sent the pair on an…