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EURUSD Comment: Even the brain dead will have to start waking up to reality following the Euro’s close above important resistance around 1.3700. A weekly close above here would add to current strong bullish momentum. Note that above here there are no really strong resistance levels until the 1.4200 area.

* Times listed are GMT

Positive U.S. economic data is counteracting the strain that the swine flu and the initial results of stress tests are having on the currency markets.

Another night of risk aversion has lifted the yen to a six week high against the euro and a four week high against the buck as WHO raised the alert status of the swine flu crisis from 3 to 4. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for health security and environment noted that the increased threat level “signifies that we have taken a step closer to pandemic. It is also possible that as the situation evolves over the next few days we could move into Stage 5.”

Japan’s retail sales fell for a seventh consecutive month in March as weakening labor market prompted households to cut spending in a clear sign that Japan’s economy is seeing no evidence of a rebound in consumer demand. Sales declined by 3.9% earlier which was actually a bit better than the market consensus of a 4.7% drop, but despite the slightly better than forecast numbers, today’s retails sales data confirms the fact the world’s second largest economy remains mired in the worst economic slump in the post war era. Yesterday, the Japanese government forecast that the economy will shrink by 3.3% in 2009.

The lack of any meaningful U.S. economic data along with fear that the swine flu has the risk of turning into a global health crisis has caused investors to flock into the safety of the U.S. dollar. We have always said that when it comes to currencies, investors and traders always sell first and ask questions later.